Winning by numbers. Why City will win the EPL this season

As I sit down to write this article all the teams in the English Premiership are even on twenty five games played giving just the thirteen left to play. With the FA Cup being played this weekend it means that both City and United get to rest while other contenders, Tottenham Hotspur, travel to Stevenage. Hopefully Tottenham will progress and the latter stages will keep them busy.

Anyway back to the Premier League and in all the years since the Premiership started the team that has been at the top of the table at this stage in the season (date rather than games played) has gone on to win the Premier League thirteen times. That only leaves six other seasons although four of those were won by United after being in second place at this point in the season. 

Now Manchester City are only two points ahead of United as we go into the FA Cup break but will have a number of key players back when the Premiership resumes on the 25th February and have two winnable home games. United however have two really difficult away games against a high flying Canaries and then to Spurs. Ideally Manchester City would be at least four points clear of United heading into the second week of March.

The closest match to this seasons current table is the table after 25 games in the 2007-08 season. That season Arsenal were topof the table on 60 points with United behind by two points. United ended up winning the title with a total of 87 points. So that means they only managed 29 points in the final run in, but with Arsenal only getting 23 points it proved to be enough.

Don't be disheartened though City fans as that season all Uniteds 'tough' fixtures took place at Old Trafford. Wins home to Liverpool, Villa and top side Arsenal proved the difference. This time however their 'tough' fixtures are away from OT. Already mentioned Spurs and Norwich but add to that Sunderland on the last day of the season and a trip to City two games before that and they will be doing well to get their 87 points this time around. I have calculated that they will only manage 26 points which will give them 84 points (obviously gave City the win!). With me giving City the three points against United that means for them to win the EPL we only need another 22 points. That's doable!  

Hopefully City will have the title wrapped up by the time United visit at the end of March but the romantic and blue blooded City fan in me is hoping that we are only four points clear of them as we walk on the field. Imagine the jubilation with a City win against United, giving us the title at our own ground with our cross town rivals mooching off will eclipse even the FA Cup Semi Final last season or the 50th Munich anniversary in the very season I have been talking about. 

Comments

[pa cityboy]

This is true. I think an all game party if we have already won it might be better than nail biting during the game waiting to win it I agree. Just think it would be nice having beat them in the Semis last season and a 6-1 win this season to rub it in their noses once more. They can keep the community shield!